Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes

Abstract. Greenhouse-gas-driven global temperature change projections exhibit spatial variations, meaning that certain land areas will experience substantially enhanced or reduced surface warming. It is vital to understand regional warming anomalies as they locally increase heat-related risks human health and ecosystems. We argue tropospheric lapse-rate changes play a key role in shaping the future summer pattern around globe mid-latitudes tropics. present multiple lines of evidence supporting this finding based on idealized simulations over Europe, well climate model ensembles. All consistently show vertical distribution different regions characterized by Enhanced projected where are small, implying upper troposphere similar On other hand, strong cause concentration near surface. The varying magnitude governed dependence moist-adiabatic lapse rate available humidity. conclude should be considered along with processes when assessing causes patterns.